3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,248 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 61 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,606/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$965
Tax + insurance
−$366
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$337
Net cashflow
$-62/mo
Annual
$-743/yr
Cap rate
5.89%
Cash-on-cash
-1.44%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$51,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-743/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (5.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (12.7% below list).
It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $161k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#283 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
Corsicana ISD (town): math 39% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #471 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Carroll El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 502 students, 96% FRL); Corsicana Middle (math 35% / reading 43%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 928 students, 76% FRL); Corsicana H S (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,805 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 65% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in Corsicana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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