616 Old County Rd

Rockland, ME 04841

$189,900B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,656 sqft · Built 1769 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,303/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $334/mo
• Annual: $4,003/yr
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.53%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#116 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• RSU 13 (town): math 77% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #84 of 112 in ME (top 75%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: South School (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #209 of 294 statewide, top 75%, 265 students, 62% FRL); Oceanside Middle School (math 74% / reading 86%, grade A+, #59 of 85 statewide, top 71%, 349 students, 52% FRL); Oceanside High School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A, #75 of 108 statewide, top 83%, 525 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1769 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 160 units permitted in Knox County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Knox County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.4% in Rockland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,303/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 279% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1769 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.