532 4th Ave S #2

Naples, FL 34102

$425,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Active · 527 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$870
• HOA: −$728
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,012
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-226/yr
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.11%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-226/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $422k (0.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• It's been on market 527 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $374k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 614 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 6983% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $315k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($131k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 527 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.