2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
980 sqft ·
Built 1997
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 57 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$995/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$183
Tax + insurance
−$520
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$209
Net cashflow
$83/mo
Annual
$994/yr
Cap rate
24.97%
Cash-on-cash
66.71%
DSCR
3.97
1% rule
2.85%
Cash to close
$9,772
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($994/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($995 rent vs $35k).
It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#670 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Horseheads Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #347 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Ridge Road School (math 42% / reading 72%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 400 students, 34% FRL); Horseheads Middle School (math 29% / reading 50%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 572 students, 36% FRL); Horseheads Senior High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,142 students, 27% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Horseheads Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GNNTDM06FBZE5T
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29