103 Fairwood Cir

Piney, AR 71913

$119,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,555/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $461/mo
• Annual: $5,536/yr
• Cap rate: 11.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.86%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#218 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Hamilton Primary School (666 students, 69% FRL); Lake Hamilton Middle School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #129 of 201 statewide, top 64%, 631 students, 66% FRL); Lake Hamilton High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 936 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $120k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 1.9% in Piney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.