3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,470 sqft ·
Built 1911
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 188 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$962/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$152
Tax + insurance
−$44
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$202
Net cashflow
$563/mo
Annual
$6,761/yr
Cap rate
29.61%
Cash-on-cash
83.26%
DSCR
4.70
1% rule
3.32%
Cash to close
$8,120
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $29k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($962 rent vs $29k).
It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $200 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $870 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#358 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Butler County (town): math 7% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #113 of 129 in AL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Butler County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 4.4% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GP1C5281H3CMDY
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29