460 Old Town Rd Unit 5B

East Setauket, NY 11772

$199,999D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 940 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,644/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$1,436
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-729/mo
• Annual: $-8,750/yr
• Cap rate: 1.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.62%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-729 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brookhaven-Comsewogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #123 of 590 in NY (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 2.9% in East Setauket — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic update needed
• Minor: Flooring — Worn appearance