3748 NW 29th Trl

Jennings, FL 32053

$123,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $993/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$18
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $411/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $34,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($411/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($850 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#843 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime D-.
• Hamilton (rural): math 34% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #68 of 73 in FL (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.9% in Jennings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.