3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,496 sqft ·
Built 1978
· Other
· Pending
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,173/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$681
Tax + insurance
−$351
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$246
Net cashflow
$-106/mo
Annual
$-1,268/yr
Cap rate
5.32%
Cash-on-cash
-3.49%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$36,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (14.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (9.7% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $111k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $12k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#513 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
West Carroll CUSD 314 (rural): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #498 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: West Carroll Primary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,278 of 2,056 statewide, top 65%, 416 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll Middle School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 193 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll High School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #462 of 693 statewide, top 68%, 286 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GQ50E7ETZ5CX6M
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29