4705 Pine St

Pasadena, TX 77586

$214,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,970/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-166/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-166/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (8.3% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $197k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Seabrook Int (math 53% / reading 57%, grade B-, #248 of 1,662 statewide, top 15%, 963 students, 30% FRL); Clear Falls H S (math 49% / reading 64%, grade C, #357 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,473 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.