3585 State Rt 9

Warrensburg, NY 12845

$129,900B+

6 bd · 3.5 ba · 286 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Pending · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,107/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $1,522/mo
• Annual: $18,269/yr
• Cap rate: 20.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.23%
• DSCR: 3.23
• 1% rule: 2.39%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#823 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Warrensburg Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #552 of 755 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warrensburg Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 361 students, 58% FRL); Warrensburg Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 302 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 2.6% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.