2830 SW Indian Trl

Topeka, KS 66614

$229,999F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,116 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,604/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-344/mo
• Annual: $-4,133/yr
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.42%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-344 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (30.3% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $160k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#195 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Topeka Public Schools (urban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #158 of 169 in KS (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mceachron Elem (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #273 of 684 statewide, top 45%, 418 students, 73% FRL); Marjorie French Middle School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #98 of 219 statewide, top 44%, 436 students, 70% FRL); Topeka West High (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #244 of 327 statewide, top 75%, 1,085 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.9%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 219 units permitted in Shawnee County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shawnee County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $230k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.