14923 Sanford Ave

New York, NY 11355

$388,888F

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 11,966 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,025/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,039
• Tax + insurance: −$648
• HOA: −$4,068
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$845
• Net cashflow: $-3,576/mo
• Annual: $-42,906/yr
• Cap rate: -4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -39.40%
• DSCR: -0.75
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $108,889

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-43k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $389k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $377k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 101% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 405 active listings in the ZIP; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -4.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $4,025/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 6765% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?