2060 Matecumbe Key Rd #2106

Burnt Store Marina, FL 33955

$419,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Built 2000 · Condo · Active · 416 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,241/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$688
• HOA: −$769
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$891
• Net cashflow: $-308/mo
• Annual: $-3,694/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $117,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-308 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (13.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $420k).
• It's been on market 416 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $366k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#354 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Elementary School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 1,231 students, 38% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 57% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 1490 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $330k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,241/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 226% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 416 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?