3307 Jonathan Cir

Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30906

$172,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-683/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $48,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-683/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (24.6% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $130k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Richmond Hill K-8 (math 4% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,152 of 1,228 statewide, top 94%, 1,174 students, 98% FRL); Butler High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #421 of 424 statewide, top 100%, 837 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $172k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.