4004 Lawrence St

Colmar Manor, MD 20722

$449,000D

7 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,097/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$701
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-608/mo
• Annual: $-7,302/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-608 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (31.0% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $310k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#207 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, health & safety B+; Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, crime F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $309k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.