916 Fawn

Granbury, TX 76049

$215,700D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,741/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,131
• Tax + insurance: −$360
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-115/mo
• Annual: $-1,385/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $60,396

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $216k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Acton El (math 52% / reading 46%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 814 students, 48% FRL); Acton Middle (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 981 students, 43% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.