821 Cluny Rd

Snowmass Village, CO 81611

$17,950,000D-

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 6,521 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94,132
• Tax + insurance: −$29,917
• HOA: −$1,250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,203
• Net cashflow: $-117,011/mo
• Annual: $-1,404,131/yr
• Cap rate: -1.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -27.94%
• DSCR: -0.24
• 1% rule: 0.06%
• Cash to close: $5,026,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $17.95M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117k ($-1.40M/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.02M (94.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.05M (94.2% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($16.87M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.02M (94.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $1.92M of equity ($124k loan paydown + $1.79M appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#177 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Aspen Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #321 of 966 statewide, top 35%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Aspen Middle School (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 443 students, 0% FRL); Aspen High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 529 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12.49M; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$3.08M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $10,490/mo this rent would consume 152% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 94% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.