161 Lodgepole Dr

Evanston, WY 82930

$199,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1982 · MultiFamily · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,244/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-196/mo
• Annual: $-2,349/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (37.8% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#112 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Uinta County School District #1 (town): math 54% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #17 of 41 in WY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Evanston Elementary (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #62 of 151 statewide, top 49%, 308 students, 63% FRL); Davis Middle School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #13 of 55 statewide, top 22%, 322 students, 48% FRL); Evanston High School (math 49% / reading 59%, grade C-, #24 of 75 statewide, top 35%, 747 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 32% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Uinta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Uinta County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Evanston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.