807 Rodeo Aly

Cloudcroft, NM 88317

$255,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 374 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $313/mo
• Annual: $3,753/yr
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.37%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (5.9% below list).
• It's been on market 374 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#107 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cloudcroft Municipal Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #12 of 95 in NM (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 374 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.