14517 Eagle Ridge Dr

Villas, FL 33912

$579,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,715 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,543/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
• Tax + insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$954
• Net cashflow: $-88/mo
• Annual: $-1,061/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $162,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $579k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $563k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $454k (21.5% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $454k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#94 in FL, #1,462 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 305 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $341k; list at $579k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.3% in Villas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,543/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 292% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.