226 Cape Harbour Loop #104

Bradenton, FL 34212

$224,900D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,429 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$379
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-221/mo
• Annual: $-2,656/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (3.7% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freedom Elementary School (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 574 students, 42% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $160k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?