Colony 414 Cranberry Village Estates Plan

Economy, PA 16066

$119,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 389 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,129/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$268
• Tax + insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $1,329/mo
• Annual: $15,945/yr
• Cap rate: 37.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.40%
• DSCR: 5.96
• 1% rule: 4.17%
• Cash to close: $14,313

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $354 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#855 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Seneca Valley SD (rural): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #73 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Haine El Sch (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #377 of 1,518 statewide, top 28%, 813 students, 21% FRL); Ryan Gloyer Ms (math 32% / reading 64%, grade C-, #153 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 1,123 students, 21% FRL); Seneca Valley Hs (math 71% / reading 75%, grade B+, #35 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 2,307 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 289 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 37.5% vs local median 2.8% in Economy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.