912 Riverside Dr

Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$539,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,345 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 272 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,214/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax + insurance: −$357
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$885
• Net cashflow: $145/mo
• Annual: $1,741/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $150,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $421k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $421k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tarpon Springs Elementary School (math 57% / reading 41%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 506 students, 80% FRL); Tarpon Springs Middle School (math 59% / reading 61%, grade B, #135 of 571 statewide, top 24%, 644 students, 50% FRL); Tarpon Springs High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,139 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $539k implies a 597% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,214/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 721% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.