2815 Willows Rd #229

Ilwaco, WA 98644

$380,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,186 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Pending · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,959/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$435
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-479/mo
• Annual: $-5,746/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.40%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $106,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Beach Elementary School (221 students, 80% FRL); Hilltop Elementary School (236 students, 70% FRL); Ilwaco High School (296 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.