4071 Dixie Bee Line Hwy

Trenton, KY 42266

$245,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,887/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-830/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-830/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#228 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Todd County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #99 of 165 in KY (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Todd Elementary School (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #285 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 509 students, 62% FRL); Todd County Middle School (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 392 students, 57% FRL); Todd County Central High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 551 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Todd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Todd County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.