2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,368 sqft ·
Built 1989
· Condo
· Pending
· 6 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,654/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$723
Tax + insurance
−$132
HOA
−$493
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$347
Net cashflow
$-42/mo
Annual
$-504/yr
Cap rate
5.93%
Cash-on-cash
-1.30%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$38,612
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $138k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-504/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (5.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $130k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $953 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
Market conditions: 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $73k; list at $138k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in On Top of the World — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GXD7N86WCSVXEM
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29