76 Parks Rd

Livingston Manor, NY 12758

$245,900D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2008 · Manufactured · Pending · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,109/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax + insurance: −$617
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-241/mo
• Annual: $-2,890/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $68,852

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $246k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,173 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.