Clayton Thrill Zero Energy Ready Home Plan

North Branch, MI 48461

$87,220B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 808 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$457
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $535/mo
• Annual: $6,418/yr
• Cap rate: 13.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.28%
• DSCR: 2.17
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $24,422

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $87k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $87k).
• It's been on market 808 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $603 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#393 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• North Branch Area Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #163 of 540 in MI (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Branch Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #478 of 1,397 statewide, top 34%, 923 students, 55% FRL); Ruth Fox Middle School (math 37% / reading 51%, grade D, #173 of 493 statewide, top 36%, 684 students, 53% FRL); North Branch High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #304 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 701 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.6% in North Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 808 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.