2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,165 sqft ·
Built 1971
· Condo
· Active
· 67 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,952/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$37
HOA
−$825
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$410
Net cashflow
$418/mo
Annual
$5,020/yr
Cap rate
16.33%
Cash-on-cash
35.85%
DSCR
2.60
1% rule
3.90%
Cash to close
$14,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $50k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#170 in FL, #2,546 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Pinellas Central Elementary School (math 51% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 498 students, 64% FRL); Dixie M. Hollins High School (math 30% / reading 40%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,822 students, 56% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $33k; list at $50k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 4.0% in Pinellas Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GZJQ75DDDN4Z72
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29