1418 Pirates Cv

Nassau Bay, TX 77058

$410,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,424 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$939
• HOA: −$9
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-671/mo
• Annual: $-8,046/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.31%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $114,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-671 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $292k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#470 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.2% in Nassau Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,073/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?