929 E Foothill Blvd #190

Upland, CA 91786

$195,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$1,700
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-319/mo
• Annual: $-3,829/yr
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.01%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-319 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (28.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#184 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Upland Unified (suburban): math 39% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #493 of 1,400 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Vista Elementary (429 students, 76% FRL); Upland Junior High (667 students, 88% FRL); Upland High (3,070 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 44% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.7% in Upland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.