320 Violet Ave

Mission, TX 78574

$189,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,736/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$411
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-30/mo
• Annual: $-361/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-361/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.