101 County Road 2341

Dayton, TX 77535

$199,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · Built 2010 · Manufactured · Pending · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,068/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$646
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-55/mo
• Annual: $-666/yr
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.99%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-666/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (4.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.