629 Concord Rd

Stinesville, IN 47433

$229,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-420/mo
• Annual: $-5,036/yr
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.85%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (47.4% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $121k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#182 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spencer-Owen Community Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #155 of 301 in IN (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mccormick'S Creek Elementary Sch (math 55% / reading 46%, grade D+, #269 of 994 statewide, top 27%, 393 students, 52% FRL); Owen Valley Middle School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #222 of 330 statewide, top 67%, 344 students, 55% FRL); Owen Valley Community High School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #106 of 369 statewide, top 31%, 671 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Owen County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $229k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.