615 Carlisle Dr

Kilgore, TX 75662

$190,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,132 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-172/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-172/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#257 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• Kilgore ISD (town): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #498 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?