1533 Blue Sky Way

Four Corners, FL 34714

$409,000D+

6 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,390 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax + insurance: −$573
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $-221/mo
• Annual: $-2,648/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $114,520

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $409k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $370k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (20.9% below list).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $323k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sawgrass Bay Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 735 students, 42% FRL); Windy Hill Middle School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C+, #213 of 571 statewide, top 38%, 1,280 students, 35% FRL); East Ridge High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 2,604 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 729 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,235/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 953% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.