11201 N EL Mirage Rd #360

El Mirage, AZ 85335

$89,000B

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 739 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 513 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,262/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $382/mo
• Annual: $4,581/yr
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.38%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 513 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Luke Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 623 students, 55% FRL); Dysart High School (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #139 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,433 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 41% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 513 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.