1589 E Ocean

Newport Beach, CA 92661

$4,150,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,693/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$21,763
• Tax + insurance: −$6,917
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,245
• Net cashflow: $-20,233/mo
• Annual: $-242,791/yr
• Cap rate: 0.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.89%
• DSCR: 0.07
• 1% rule: 0.26%
• Cash to close: $1,162,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $4.15M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20k ($-243k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.22M (70.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.07M (74.2% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($3.90M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.07M (74.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $444k of equity ($29k loan paydown + $415k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#101 in CA, #3,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Newport-Mesa Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #106 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $3.20M; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$713k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.4% vs local median 0.6% in Newport Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $10,693/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($209k/yr) (locally 72% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 74% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.