7402 Alabonson Rd #506

Houston, TX 77088

$53,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 663 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $975/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$410
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-906/yr
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 1.84%
• Cash to close: $14,840

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $53k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-906/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $40k (25.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $53k).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 7% / reading 10%, grade F, #4,298 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 555 students, 94% FRL); Hoffman Middle (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 637 students, 91% FRL); Aldine H S (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 2,663 students, 94% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; HOA is 42% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?