3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,216 sqft ·
Built 2023
· Manufactured
· Active
· 76 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,754/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$225
Tax + insurance
−$72
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$368
Net cashflow
$1,089/mo
Annual
$13,074/yr
Cap rate
36.77%
Cash-on-cash
108.84%
DSCR
5.84
1% rule
4.09%
Cash to close
$12,012
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $43k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $43k).
It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $40k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Longleaf Elementary School (math 37% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 548 students, 77% FRL); Bellview Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Pine Forest High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,870 students, 62% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 421 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 36.8% vs local median 5.2% in Bellview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— Significant wear and tear
Major: roof
— No visible damage, but age is unknown