1015-1017 Walnut St

Sunbury, PA 17801

$174,500C+

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1971 · MultiFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax + insurance: −$346
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $913/mo
• Annual: $10,961/yr
• Cap rate: 12.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.80%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $48,860

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $174k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $913 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $457/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $174k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#374 in PA, #3,298 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shikellamy SD (town): math 33% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #362 of 539 in PA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 7.1% in Sunbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant wear and tear visible on the roof
• Major: exterior siding — Weathered and peeling siding, indicating structural issues
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt lawn and landscaping