4311 Ky Rt 3379

Pikeville, KY 41635

$109,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,063/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $116/mo
• Annual: $1,393/yr
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.18%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Floyd County (rural): math 13% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #157 of 165 in KY (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Betsy Layne High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #213 of 254 statewide, top 86%, 407 students, 74% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Floyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Floyd County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.