10 Park Central Cir

Rockwall, TX 75087

$385,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,899 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,788/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-274/mo
• Annual: $-3,294/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (27.6% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $279k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#86 in TX, #3,043 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rockwall ISD (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #83 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Celia Hays El (math 62% / reading 59%, grade B-, #385 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 517 students, 11% FRL); J W Williams Middle (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 828 students, 21% FRL); Rockwall-Heath H S (math 50% / reading 61%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,912 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 1016 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Rockwall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.