2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
900 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Condo
· Pending
· 148 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,501/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$781
Tax + insurance
−$248
HOA
−$280
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$315
Net cashflow
$-124/mo
Annual
$-1,483/yr
Cap rate
5.30%
Cash-on-cash
-3.56%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$41,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $149k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (12.0% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #3,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Daphne Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 693 students, 53% FRL); Daphne Middle School (math 25% / reading 62%, grade D, #45 of 257 statewide, top 18%, 846 students, 45% FRL); Daphne High School (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #33 of 305 statewide, top 11%, 1,725 students, 40% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 600 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Daphne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: siding
— Severe weathering and peeling
Major: interior walls
— Worn carpet and outdated decor
Major: kitchen appliances
— Old and outdated appliances
Major: bathroom fixtures
— Small and outdated fixtures
Major: flooring
— Worn carpet and outdated decor
CashFlowRE · CFR-H3MTQG93W0TKS5
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29