4 Jerome St

Hauppauge, NY 11787

$779,999D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,989 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,580/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,090
• Tax + insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$962
• Net cashflow: $-1,221/mo
• Annual: $-14,647/yr
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $218,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $780k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $564k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $458k (41.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($768k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $458k (41.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#166 in NY, #2,580 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Smithtown Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mills Pond Elementary School (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A, #188 of 2,108 statewide, top 11%, 372 students, 12% FRL); Great Hollow Middle School (math 57% / reading 74%, grade A-, #119 of 729 statewide, top 16%, 828 students, 11% FRL); Smithtown High School-West (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,270 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $394k; list at $780k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Hauppauge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.