47 Driftwood

Heritage Hills, NY 10589

$795,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,635 sqft · Built 1998 · Townhouse · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax + insurance: −$1,652
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,449
• Net cashflow: $-770/mo
• Annual: $-9,240/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $222,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $795k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-770 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $659k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $690k (13.2% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($783k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $659k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• North Salem Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #125 of 590 in NY (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pequenakonck Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 438 students, 16% FRL); North Salem Middle School/High School (math 67% / reading 78%, grade B+, #671 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 547 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $580k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.5% in Heritage Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.