3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,568 sqft ·
Built 1997
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,126/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$729
Tax + insurance
−$101
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$237
Net cashflow
$60/mo
Annual
$722/yr
Cap rate
6.81%
Cash-on-cash
1.86%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$38,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($722/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (19.0% below list).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $113k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#287 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
Haleyville City (rural): math 23% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #50 of 129 in AL (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Winston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Winston County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $10k; list at $139k implies a 1290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.5% in Haleyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-H4ZPCN7X2ZWA0W
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29