2509 Blanchard Dr

Chalmette, LA 70043

$215,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,745/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-190/mo
• Annual: $-2,279/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#137 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 112 units permitted in St. Bernard Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Bernard County population projected at +89% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.