3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,527 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Other
· Active
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,476/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$206
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$310
Net cashflow
$227/mo
Annual
$2,720/yr
Cap rate
8.71%
Cash-on-cash
8.65%
DSCR
1.38
1% rule
1.06%
Cash to close
$39,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Line Mountain SD (rural): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #266 of 539 in PA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Line Mountain El Sch (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #737 of 1,518 statewide, top 52%, 368 students, 48% FRL); Line Mountain Ms (math 20% / reading 62%, grade F, #243 of 512 statewide, top 48%, 307 students, 48% FRL); Line Mountain Hs (math 84%, 331 students, 34% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $53k; list at $140k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-H5AEJ1C525H72Z
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29